Free Economics Dissertations - A Detailed Analysis Of The Projection Shows Us That Between 1962 And 1971 We
A detailed analysis of the projection shows us that between 1962 and 1971 we witnessed highest average population growth rate of 2.07 percent. Graph II shows a steady climb in the population growth. Does rising growth rate in population have any affect on the productivity as per Malthusian analysis ?
Between 1980 and 1995, high income countries witnessed GNP growth rate of 2.8 % and GNP per capita growth rate of 2.1 % (almost identical) and population growth rate of 0.7 %. In low income countries the GNP grows at 5.9 % and the GNP per capita at 3.8 %. As per Malthusian analysis, low income country must depict very high growth in population and very low GNP per capita. In other words, the GNP per capita rate must be lower than the rate of population growth due to lower production. The World Bank study shows that low income country in fact had the highest GNP of all 4 groups.
However we must not ignore the fact that GNP falls significantly if we disregard the economies of India and China i.e. the population, GNP drops and the GNP per capita is negative. Also, the increase in productivity is due to the buoyant Indian and Chinese economies. Under these circumstances, to some extent, the Malthusian principle of low productivity holds. But with economic reforms and planning, we can indeed raise production. It is estimated that in the developed world the rate of population growth has almost stopped and trend we see in the Graph II is predominantly from the Asian and African regions.
Graph I Population Projections
Graph II World Population
3.1 Fertility and Mortality.
It is estimated that by the year 2050, the world population is expected to rise to well over 9 billion. The role of health services will play a significantly role in controlling population growth. Declining fertility rate combined with significant fall in the infant mortality rate have great impact on the annual PG growth rate. Some regions like the Africa continent still lack basic health facility which affects the regions productivity level. Below is a graph that shows the composition of fertility across the world
As suggested above, the Sub-Saharan African region, Middle East and North Africa followed by South Asia show the highest level of fertility. It is largely due to non-availability of contraceptives and poor health education. In must be noted in some regions, especially South Asia, religious believes influence growth in population. Efforts by the International Organisation such as WHO, NGO’s and education aimed at woman have significantly improved the situation.
The sudden drop in mortality rates across regions too has increased population growth. During the period 1950-55, the average life expectancy at birth in the world was 46 years which rose to 66 years during the period 2000-2005.
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