Free Economics Dissertations - 9 Billion In 2000 And Is Expected To Reach 5 Billion By 2030. This Is
9 billion in 2000 and is expected to reach 5 billion by 2030. This is primarily due to better job prospects and greater income in the cities. The report also suggests that almost all of the population increase expected during 2000 and 2030 will be absorbed by the urban areas of LDC regions. The emergence of the manufacturing and service sector, with higher pay prospects, as an alternative to low paying and often uncertain agricultural sector leads to this movement in labour force.
What factors influence the world’s demographic trends ? We will try to analyse these issues through the following chapters.
2.0 Population Theories Brief Analysis.
We shall first look at the Malthusian Theory. Imagine we have a given fixed piece of land and a population that has the potential to expand. The entire population engage in farm production and produce certain given level of output. As population multiplies, more people are added to its current level, the output is likely to increase. We know that as we add more inputs, the marginal contribution of these inputs is likely to increase but at a declining rate i.e. we start exhausting certain input (labour) and that their contribution will fall to zero.
As this happens, the economy will no longer be able to sustain a further rise in population as it no longer can produce enough output to meet increased demand for food. In short, we move into a stationary state with subsistence wages. An increasing population implies a population with a large base of children who are both consumers and non-producers. Therefore, lower production per capita.
In principle, the Malthusian theory shows that population grows geometrically or exponentially i.e. it increases along the order of 1, 2, 4, 8., whereas subsistence wages/output along at the rate of 1, 2, 3, 4.
This analysis can be disregarded for various reasons. We have seen that many mitigating factors such as technological development, agricultural development and development in human science have improved productivity level. Better medical access has significantly improved labour production capabilities. The very shift from bullock carts to farming tractors have sky-rocketed the farm production level. Improvements in weather forecast have enhanced the farming techniques. Medical facilities in the rural sector have greatly improved health issues.
These factors do improve production level and therefore the possibility of having Malthusian scenario of subsistence survival is doubtful. We shall look at the current trends in the next chapter and focus on issues such as GNP, GNP per capita, and productivity.
3.0 World Population Projections.
I have looked at some facts and figures to focus on the most important factor that influences population growth Income and Productivity.
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